One other thing about The Likeness, which I'm not really sure what I think about it. There's a fairly low-key strain of the supernatural running through it. Cassie tells us many (many, many, many) times that Lexie or her spirit are pushing her on, that Lexie drew her in, that she's somehow doing Lexie's will. It's pretty low-key, mostly worth noticing because there's a similar low-key supernatural element in In the Woods.
But it might account for a lot of the hokier plot elements if we see it as a ghost story -- the unlikely coincidences become instead the workings of fate or the supernatural.